111 - Next stop, the Fed?
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Next stop, the Fed?

The Fed is unlikely to cut rates at its 18-19 June meeting, but any indication it is considering lowering rates in H2 19 would likely be supportive for equities and, possibly, gold. *Equities: Lower bond yields are likely to weigh on bank margins and sector performance. We prefer the energy sector instead. *Bonds: The US […]

cover 1 - Fed, ECB to the rescue? What does this mean for investors?
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Fed, ECB to the rescue? What does this mean for investors?

Increasing signals that Fed officials are open to cutting rates and the ECB is considering restart of bond purchases are likely to provide support to risk assets. Equities: We believe fundamentals backing our preference for the energy sector remain supportive, despite the recent declines. Bonds: Bond markets are pricing in higher chances of Fed rate […]

7 - Why USD uptrend is fading?
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Why USD uptrend is fading?

*Yield differentials continue to turn gradually against the USD amid ongoing growth concerns. However, trade-related safe-haven demand and relatively high absolute yields mean the USD may be range-bound. *The CNY is likely to remain stable ahead of the G20 meeting in lateJune, with subsequent moves likely linked to how trade tensions evolve. The INR is […]

img 3367 - Bonds
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Bonds

Trimming EM bond exposure • We view bonds as a core holding, as the recent market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty reinforce their value as a hedge and an important source of income. Elevated trade uncertainty is likely to weigh on growth expectations, keeping yields capped. We lower our US 10- year Treasury yield expectation to […]

img 3366 - Macro overview
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Macro overview

Trade risks cloud ‘Goldilocks’ drift • Core scenario: Our Global Investment Committee expects global growth to stabilise at a moderate pace, suppressed by renewed trade uncertainty, which we now believe may persist into Q3. Inflation is likely to stay subdued, despite the rebound in oil prices. • Policy outlook: Moderating growth and below-target inflation are […]

image 4 1 - Rising risk of a hard Brexit?
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Rising risk of a hard Brexit?

Prime Minister May’s resignation has clearly opened the door to additional uncertainties from now until the 31 October deadline. Rather than attempting to predict the exact outcome of Brexit, a more effective approach is to focus on the question of how a no-deal Brexit could actually occur. The consensus view is that May’s resignation increases […]

jpy - Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY – UOB

USD/JPY:  24-HOUR VIEW USD could test 108.00 but prospect for a sustained decline is not high. We expected “more USD weakness” last Friday but the ease of which it cracked the solid 109.00 support and the subsequent sharp sell-off came as a surprise. The outsized decline appears to be running to fast, too soon and while […]

U.S China Trade War - What are the implications from a further escalation in US-China trade tensions?
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What are the implications from a further escalation in US-China trade tensions?

The breakdown in US-China trade talks following the latest round of tariffs in May has reignited the debate surrounding the potential evolution of the conflict between these two global superpowers and the implications for investors. We see three broad potential outcomes: 1) escalation is temporary, leading to a deal by the G20 meeting in late […]

img 3225 - Investment strategy Preparing for volatility
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Investment strategy Preparing for volatility

• Risk assets have pulled back, but looking beyond the next three months, only two of our seven factors influencing risk assets are negative. We would buy any dip in equities or corporate and EM bonds. • In our Global Investment Committee’s assessment, there is an elevated risk of volatility over the summer if a […]

MetaTrader 4 IC Markets - Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY – UOB

EUR/USD – Idles In Asia As FX Market Sidelined EUR/USD traded in a 1.1129/40 range in very quiet trading News Trump announced 5% tariffs on Mexico imports only impacted CAD & MXN Weaker than expected China MFG PMI had no impact on the FX market Month-end flows likely to dominate trading in the sessions ahead […]

pexels photo 241544 - FA/Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
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FA/Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY – UOB

EUR: A Dovish ECB Next Week Likley To Limit Any Rebound In EUR/USD Until Then – Citi Citi discusses the EUR outlook around next week’s EXCB June policy meeting. “Markets also now eye the ECB June 6th meeting where a decision about (1) TLTRO lending rate likely to be less generous as per recent ECB speak, […]

img 3133 - GBP/USD - Conservatives Hit, As MPs Jockey To Be New PM. {Order Flow EBS}
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GBP/USD – Conservatives Hit, As MPs Jockey To Be New PM. {Order Flow EBS}

+0.2% with EUR/GBP -0.2% – Brexit party won the EU elections nL8N2320Z5 Total votes show more voted remain than Brexit, but splintered nL8N2320GL Conservatives to lean to the right to combat the Brexit party nL8N2320QM Momentum studies conflict, 10 & 21 DMAs trend south – net bearish setup 1.2638, 76.4% 2019 rise proving resilient, break targets the 1.2409 2019 low […]

img 3083 - Weekly Market Review
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Weekly Market Review

US-China tensions are likely to drag on for the next few months, making a defensive stance a prudent course for investors near term. Equities: The US ban on Huawei makes us increasingly cautious about the global technology sector. Bonds: Emerging Market (EM) and Asia USD bonds have been relatively steady despite the trade tensions. We […]

img 2952 - Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY – UOB

EUR/USD:  24-HOUR VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1150/1.1190 range. EUR rebounded after touching a 2-week low of 1.1148 yesterday. The combination of dissipating downward momentum and oversold conditions suggests limited downside risk for now. From here, EUR is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade […]

img 2890 1 - China's Actions, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INVESTORS?
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China’s Actions, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INVESTORS?

China announced additional tariffs on about USD 60bn of US imports. Meanwhile, the US released a list of about USD 300bn of additional goods that could also be subject to a 25% tariff.  US equities and the CNH fell sharply. However, the reaction in other markets was more muted. Watch for buy-the-dip opportunity. Continued negotiations […]

img 2812 - Market Outlook-May1019
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Market Outlook-May1019

What does this mean for investors? Global equities and other riskier assets fell amid renewed trade tensions. Emerging Market stocks and bonds underperformed. Equities: What lessons can we draw from 2018’s trade tensions? Fallout from the September 2018 tariff hike suggests Asia ex- Japan is likely to be impacted more than the US initially. However, […]

2 Thoughtleadership Taming the Ego 818x460 - Live By the Ego, Die By the Ego - by turle trader
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Live By the Ego, Die By the Ego – by turle trader

This is the major reason why beginning traders are drawn to dis- cretionary trading. Discretionary trading feeds the ego; it is trading that relies on one’s judgment, in contrast with systematic trading, where trading decisions are made by using rules that specify exactly when and how much to buy and sell. So when you use […]